Short-Term Polar Motion Forecast Based on the Holt-Winters Algorithm and Angular Momenta of Global Surficial Geophysical Fluids

Abstract By taking into account the variable free polar motion (PM) known as Chandler wobble (CW) and irregular forced PM excited by quasi-periodic changes in atmosphere, oceans land water (described data of effective angular momenta EAM), we propose a short-term forecast method based on Holt-Winters (HW) additive algorithm (termed HW-VCW method, with VCW denoting CW). In this CW period is determined minimizing differences between observations EAM-derived for every 8-year sliding timespan. Compared to X- Y-pole errors (?PMX ?PMY) International Earth Rotation Reference Systems Service (IERS) Bulletin A, our results derived from operational EAM can reduce ?PMX up 38.4% ?PMY 34.3% forecasts ranging 1 30 days. Further, prove that using instead achieve similar accuracies.